Issues in Risk Modeling for Multi-Stage Systems

        This paper studies the robust formulation of multi-stage stochastic models. We show that modeling paradigms based on Markowitz's single-stage model lead to non-optimal second-stage decisions. We present a non-convex formulation that enforces optimality. Returning to first principles, we explore a class of two-moment approximations to utility functions for two-stage systems. The resulting mathematical models are convex and can be extended easily to the multi-stage case.

By: A. J. King, S. Takriti, and S. Ahmed

Published in: RC20993 in 1997

LIMITED DISTRIBUTION NOTICE:

This Research Report is available. This report has been submitted for publication outside of IBM and will probably be copyrighted if accepted for publication. It has been issued as a Research Report for early dissemination of its contents. In view of the transfer of copyright to the outside publisher, its distribution outside of IBM prior to publication should be limited to peer communications and specific requests. After outside publication, requests should be filled only by reprints or legally obtained copies of the article (e.g., payment of royalties). I have read and understand this notice and am a member of the scientific community outside or inside of IBM seeking a single copy only.

8730.ps.gz

Questions about this service can be mailed to reports@us.ibm.com .