Predicting the Likelihood of On-Time Delivery of Agile Projects Using ANDES

Given the work required in a development project, specified as a set of tasks, ANDES predicts when the project is likely to deliver. As in many prediction problems, ANDES reasons about an uncertain future entity: the delivery date. The project delivery date is uncertain because it depends on a number of events whose occurrence we cannot know for sure, such as the completion of subtasks, the successful integration of components, etc. We usually can only take imprecise or incomplete measurements of such events. Thus, instead of modeling a single future delivery date, ANDES treats the delivery date as a range of dates, together with a probability function that provides the likelihood of delivering on each day in the range. Modeling the delivery date in this fashion, as a probability distribution, enables ANDES to reason about the likelihood of delivery by a certain date.

By: Evelyn Duesterwald

Published in: RC25389 in 2013


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