A method is presented for predicting the critical events which can lead to system down.
This method is based on the point processes and online estimation of intensity function.
By fitting a model of intensity function to the latest part of the point process data, we can predict the expected number of occurence of events after time $T$.
We can also estimate how likely the system will go down after time $T$.
Simulation results are also presented for artificially generated point process data.
By: Toshiyuki Yamane, Hideki Tai and Takayuki Kushida
Published in: RT0723 in 2007
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