Modeling Propagation of Infectious Disease as Connected Network

Pandemic is likely to occur in the near future, and it could cause significant disruptions in society. Avian influenza is such an example as it can potentially evolve to be transmitted from human to human, and spread world-wide in a short period of time. In order to prepare for such disaster and to develop global mitigation strategies for society, government as well as enterprises, need to understand how fast diseases would spread and also the magnitude of infection. As world has became more global than ever, population, social network and transportation would make it much easier for diseases to spread than before. In this paper, we describe a disease spread model that combines compartmental epidemiological model with connected network of geographical locations and airports using system dynamics method. We also model how various mitigation actions would affect the spread of disease. The model is intended to be used for firms in studying possible impact of pandemic disease on their business. Various scenarios of disease spreads are simulated and presented.

By: Lianjun An; Young M. Lee

Published in: RC24259 in 2007


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