Cause-to-Effect Operational Risk Quantification (revised version, January 2006)

Operational-risk quantification has recently become important owing to the new Basel II regulations. Current methods based on observation of losses and their magnitudes to quantify operational risk do not preserve the cause-to-effect relationship that shows how operational risk can be reduced, managed, and controlled. We introduce a cause-to-effect operational-risk modeling methodology that enables operational risk to be reduced, managed, and controlled. As part of this methodology we develop a decomposition algorithm to address the complexity of large-scale models. We demonstrate the use of this methodology with an example inspired by the settlement process of an inter-bank financial clearinghouse.

By: Chonawee Supatgiat; Chris Kenyon; Lucas S. Heusler

Published in: , volume , (no ), pages in 2005

LIMITED DISTRIBUTION NOTICE:

This Research Report is available. This report has been submitted for publication outside of IBM and will probably be copyrighted if accepted for publication. It has been issued as a Research Report for early dissemination of its contents. In view of the transfer of copyright to the outside publisher, its distribution outside of IBM prior to publication should be limited to peer communications and specific requests. After outside publication, requests should be filled only by reprints or legally obtained copies of the article (e.g., payment of royalties). I have read and understand this notice and am a member of the scientific community outside or inside of IBM seeking a single copy only.

rz3599_revised.pdf

Questions about this service can be mailed to reports@us.ibm.com .